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How Useful Are Price Guides?

by James Halperin

Column 18 - August 16, 2001
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In our world of ever-thickening data smog, coin-pricing information has not been left behind. Joining the venerated Redbook, the blue- and blackbooks, Coin World Trends, Coin Prices, CDN and CCDN, are a plethora of new price guides. A recent search of "coins" on Amazon.com produced 1079 separate coin books, about a third of which appear to offer mostly pricing information. On the Internet, pricing sources abound; the best of which include Coin Universe's and NumisMedia's daily price guides. You can also find CCE & CCN prices on the Net, not to mention auction results. (At Heritage's site, we now post our prices realized right next to the entire lot description, and our archives currently go back to January 1997 - as of this writing, approximately 35 sales representing about 75,000 lots. By next year, I assume those numbers will double.)

These pricing guides are useful tools, especially when their limitations are clearly understood. Most of the printed guides state that their authors or publishers don't buy or sell coins and warn that the values they suggest are intended only as a general yardstick. Most people who use these guides do buy and sell coins and must contend with specific prices. This makes the users of price guides very different from the producers.

When evaluating truly scarce and rare coins, I find it most productive to view each potential transaction as an independent event. Just as no two coins are identical, each buying or selling experience or situation should be considered unique. I try to consider the state of the market in general, the market temperature of the series, whether or not the coin has waiting retail buyers, general cash flow and inventory levels of the coin industry, which major auction sales are coming up and whether those sales contain similar coins, whether any hoards have recently been discovered, whether the seller is a regular supplier who gives me "first shot" at any coins offered for sale (I always pay more for first shot), and so on. And that's before any observation about how nice the coin is relative to the stated grade!

Most price guides suggest that the values they list are what any motivated buyer might be willing to pay. You must keep in mind that both buyer and seller are trying to make the best deal for themselves (hopefully subject to ethics, and preserving reputation and long-term relationships). Motivation, or the lack of it, can occur for many different reasons. Perhaps prompted by wishful thinking, some collectors believe a dealer should always be ready to make an offer for every coin, and that such offers should always correspond to a certain price guide's suggestion of value. In many cases, a dealer is thrilled to oblige, but when it doesn't happen, the seller can become annoyed, most often with the dealer rather than the producers of the price guides.

In the context of scarce and rare coins, pricing guides often work to the benefit of the buyer by setting what the seller views as the upper limit. Some coins trade so infrequently that by the time a new example becomes available, all price records are obsolete. Other times, the grade or scarcity of the coin, or its unusual attractiveness, will justify a price far higher than anything you are likely to find in print. I've witnessed numerous instances where buyers would have gladly paid more than the price guides suggested, but the seller's confidence in the guide's information made this unnecessary. Anyone who questions a dealer's willingness to occasionally disregard the price guides need only review the prices realized from any major auction sale to discover that this happens quite often.

Despite their inherent limitations, pricing guides provide a valuable service to the hobby and business. There is no question that pricing information increases the confidence of buyers. What I would caution against is becoming too dependent on these guides. They are not intended to replace your individual research and knowledge.

Reviewing auction results and dealer price lists can be both enjoyable and educational. Viewing lots of coins at major shows and auctions is even better. Compare such observation with values listed in different pricing guides and you'll become a better informed and more successful buyer and seller.


James Halperin is co-chairman of Heritage Rare Coin Galleries and Heritage Numismatic Auctions, of Dallas, Texas, the world's largest rare coin dealer and auctioneer. Jim has been one of the top coin traders in the world for the past 25 years. He is also the author of two best-selling futurism novels, The Truth Machine and The First Immortal.

Links:
Heritage Rare Coin Galleries
Heritage Numismatic Auctions
The Truth Machine
The First Immortal
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