The work of grading services is far from over. If there is any end in sight,
it's a very long way off and of little concern to current collectors -- or
Collectors Universe stockholders.
To cite a similar miscalculation of supply: People have been saying for
decades that shipments of United States gold coins coming from European
banks were on the verge of drying up. It hasn't happened. Nobody knows how
many coins the banks have left, nor can anyone make a meaningful guess as to
the number of coins that remain uncertified.
Submission fees and market conditions determine the rate at which coins are
sent to grading services. Remember, coins are generally submitted to
increase their value and/or salability. When business is booming, sellers
may be more inclined to use a grading service to enhance the value of their
briskly selling goods. In a depressed coin market, submissions usually
decrease.
As expected, collector interest in the new commemorative quarters has
spilled over. I imagine grading services are now receiving an unprecedented
number of Washington Quarters. If interest continues, even such animals as
average uncirculated 1964 quarters could eventually become candidates for
submission. Those who consider this an impossibility may not remember that
in the mid 1960's nice uncirculated Morgan Dollars could be obtained in
quantity for about 10% over face value. At the time, I can remember mint
sealed bags of 1000 Morgans trading in the $1,150 range - that's $1.15
apiece. Who could have foreseen paying $15 just to certify an average mint
state (today's 63) Morgan?
More than a billion Washington quarters were minted in 1964, and certainly
at least 1% of this original mintage must have survived in MS-63 or better
condition. According to my calculator, that's a lot of potential grading
service submissions.
I won't predict the longevity of any particular grading service, only the
viability of third-party certification as an institution: Favorable coin
markets may come and go but grading services are here to stay!
Coin grading services are similar to many other practical inventions. As a
consumer, you might choose to drive a Ford, but wouldn't you prefer any
automobile to the horse and buggy? Your choice of computer equipment may
differ from mine, yet I doubt either of us would enjoy being without them,
despite our feelings on certain days when our operating system crashes or we
lose a file.
Of course some numismatists believe grading services don't benefit the hobby
at all. As a youngster, I remember visiting a coin shop with the intention
of buying a Redbook. The proprietor responded to my request by informing me
that he wasn't about to let a few idiots from Wisconsin tell him how to
price his coins and that I shouldn't either. Today he probably slanders Mark
Salzberg and David Hall instead.
I never bought a coin from that dealer, but I did lots of business with
another fellow who took the time to explain that the cover of the Redbook
says it's a "Guide", in other words a tool to help numismatists
independently determine coin values. I encourage you to adopt the same
attitude toward grading services. For a fee, they can offer an informed
opinion concerning the authenticity and grade of a coin. Beyond that, you're
on your own.
