Year Ending on Positive Note

Wednesday, December 1, 1999

        As 1999 draws to a close, we reflect back on the year as a whole; a very good year for most coin dealers. Activity was mostly brisk throughout, although the summer was somewhat typical as retail buying slowed and some of the shows attracted smaller crowds. Of course, the marketing of coins on the Internet has increased substantially and professionalism is improving due to a more competitive marketplace. Famous auctions with a myriad of rarities attracted a whole new group of collectors, especially those with vast means of income, much of it realized from stock market profits. In an effort to diversify their holdings, many of these new collectors are buying for the long-term. Removing rarities from the marketplace serves to increase the value of other rarities and brings about more media recognition for numismatics as a whole.

        This is the time of the year when coin dealers do at least three things relative to their business. First, they concentrate on sales directed toward the holiday market. Secondly, they wonder what next year will bring. And thirdly (probably not the last thing they do), they begin to prepare for next year's coin market. With the holiday season quickly upon us, many coin dealers limit purchases to the types of materials they feel will sell during this gift-giving month. This may consist of small bullion items, jewelry, inexpensive collector coins, supplies and books. However, holiday sales are not limited to these areas. Coins are still bought and sold, just at a slightly slower pace than normal. Dealers already have substantial inventories and are not real aggressive in their quest for additional coins unless they appear on want lists or the prices are real attractive. On the other hand, we are finding collectors are taking advantage, pursuing coins that may be on their want lists and dealers are aggressively selling everyday material. We don't wish to minimize the amount of business that may take place for expensive coins, there are surely enough collectors with substantial means and many will buy or sell depending on their tax situation as the year comes to a close.

        What will the year 2000 bring to numismatics? As we have experienced this past year, there is a tremendous influx of new collectors vying for modern coinage. This should continue to increase as more interest is generated through the Internet. We have mentioned many times before, as these new collectors purchase inexpensive coins and gain knowledge, they will look to expand their collections with earlier, more expensive coins. The 50 States Quarters are evidence of this with many collectors extending their sights beyond the recent issues and acquiring Washington Quarters from earlier years. With the change in dated coinage, 2000 should bring a whole new type of collector into the market. Progress is definitely on our side as the number of potential collectors today is dramatically heightened compared to 100 years ago. With the population explosion, the ease of collecting, and the amount of discretionary income on the rise, there is no telling how far numismatics can go in the next five years, let alone in the next twenty.

        The majority of dealers are already planning their marketing strategy for next year's coin business. Auction houses are preparing for major sales, the most popular coin shows are already scheduled and advertising budgets are set. The first major show of the year is the FUN Show; if in attendance, you should get a true perspective on how the market will perform. The impact on market psychology generated from this show will dictate the intensity of dealers as buyers and sellers. The majority of past FUN Shows have been very positive and the market takes off as a result of fervent activity. Several top retailers come prepared with marketing strategies that envelops numerous wholesalers and provides them with the ability to spend millions of dollars, thus fueling the entire market. As the spending spreads from one dealer to another throughout the industry, additional activity is created. Dealers are hopeful the market will garner momentum and set the tone for the rest of the year.

        Speaking of the FUN Show, make sure you mark your calendar for January 6th to the 9th as the FUN Committee in Orlando hosts the annual event at the Orange County Convention Center. Heritage will conduct a major sale in conjunction with the show and, by the time it rolls around, everyone will be eager to get the new year started since there are no major shows until then.