Past, Present, & Future of Rare Coin Collecting

Wednesday, March 1, 2000

        With all of the important auctions this past year, in addition to the marketing of major hoards of coins, the numismatic market is still largely untapped. How we can attest to this fact may be beyond comprehension. Nonetheless, the volume of sales in the last few years has to be astronomical compared to overall sales in the ten years prior. No, we are not going to throw numbers at you for comparison. There is really no way this can be done legitimately because nobody is privy to the actual sales of all the coin businesses across America, let alone including those sales outside of the United States. So let's not pretend that we can even muster up numbers that would rattle the rafters of Wall Street; it can't be done.

        What do we know? We have specific knowledge of markets and their cycles over the last 40+ years. We can research numbers in prestigious auctions and, with the use of the Red Book, we can make comparisons of prior sales and market conditions at the time of these sales. However, what we cannot determine is the number of collectors in the world today buying coins on some sort of a regular basis. Back in 1900, there were probably a thousand collectors across America (here we are using editor's license; you may insert any number you want). And don't forget it did not cost anything, so to speak, to collect coins in that time period. Most saved rather than bought the coins they collected and the out-of-pocket expenses were merely the face value of their collections. To put this in perspective, when many of us first began collecting seriously in the mid 1960s, you could purchase a Morgan Dollar, one of today's most sought after series, for as little as $1.50 and an uncirculated dollar for only $2. In fact, you could still get them at the banks. Many of us still remember in the early 70s, going to Wednesday night dealer meetings and trading Gem Silver Dollars at $10 each. Our point: there are always bargains to be had from underachieving areas of the coin market, even today.

        In this year 2000, there are now hundreds of thousands of collectors trying to find those bargains that will bring satisfaction to heirs in the year 2100. In the last 100 years, there have been so many more collectible coins with huge premiums on them compared to coins available in 1900, leaving us with one question; what will 2100 bring?

        Another thought imperative to the modern-day collecting society: quality is much more important today than it was 100 years ago. Collectible coinage will be saved in higher quality and in larger numbers. Will this make these coins rise at a slower pace than earlier collectible coins? We believe that there will be so many more collectors competing for this high quality material that the supplies will be just as short for the modern coins as it has been for the Type Coins of the 1800s and early 1900s. Just look at the abundance of collectors building modern sets with the highest quality coins. The fact that coins are now collected in slabs does not hurt long term storage either.

        One series that has helped initiate this jumpstart in collecting is the Washington Quarter. The 50 States Quarter Program has shown that the government can make as much or more in profits as the high profile coin dealers in the country. This, of course, will not go unnoticed by the powers that be and will eventually lead to more coin design changes encouraging even more collectors, as well as adding additional profits to the government's coffers. In as much as the Washington Quarter has helped increase the amount of collectors in the last year, there is an earlier series that will garner much attention in the future as collectors realize the rarity of this series. It is the uncirculated Standing Liberty Quarter. When we look at Internet auctions, dealer inventories at coin shows, and retail ads, this series is quite remarkable in that you may search through hundreds of coins and not find a single piece. There are numerous dates in the upper grades that have very low populations; if ten new collectors of this series started to look for high-end coins, prices could increase substantially. For those of you looking for Full Head specimens, it's an even tougher search. The recent Heritage Sale at Long Beach had some amazing Full Head specimens that will have long term effects on the pricing structure of this series. While there were many other highlights of this sale, we have focused our list on the Standing Liberty Quarter. You may go to the Heritage website for complete prices realized.

Denomination	Grade	Price Realized
1796 No Pole Half Cent	PCGS F15	$47,150
1877 Indian Cent	PCGS MS65RD	$19,550
1916 D Mercury Dime	PCGS MS64FB	$14,950
1854 Seated Quarter W/Arrows	NGC MS67	$16,675
1891 O Seated Quarter	PCGS MS65	$12,075
1916 Standing Lib Quarter	NGC MS64FH	$10,925
1916 Standing Lib Quarter	NGC MS66FH	$22,425
1917 D TI Standing Lib Quarter	PCGS MS67FH	$8,280
1917 D TII Standing Lib Quarter	PCGS MS67FH	$18,400
1918 S Standing Lib Quarter	PCGS MS66FH	$28,450
1918/7 S Standing Lib Quarter	NGC MS65	$50,600
1919 S Standing Lib Quarter	PCGS MS66FH	$21,850
1920 D Standing Lib Quarter	PCGS MS68FH	$29,900
1920 S Standing Lib Quarter	PCGS MS66FH	$24,150
1927 S Standing Lib Quarter	PCGS MS64FH	$46,000
1874 Seated Half W/Arrows	PCGS MS65	$10,065
1893 S Morgan Dollar	PCGS MS63	$52,900
1918 D Walking Liberty Half	PCGS MS65	$14,950
1928 Hawaiian Commem	PCGS PR64	$21,850
1915 S Pan-Pac $50 Rnd Commem	NGC MS64	$39,100
1887 $3 Gold	NGC MS66	$19,550
1848 C $5 Liberty Gold	NGC MS65	$34,500
1860 $20 Gold Liberty	NGC PR64 Cameo	$71,300
1920 S $20 St. Gaudens Gold	PCGS MS63	$33,350