Central States Successful; Long Beach Around the Corner

Thursday, April 1, 1999

        The recent Central States Convention, in Milwaukee, was very well attended by dealers and collectors from all over the country. Considering that the tax deadline just passed, money seemed to be flowing rather easily. Dealer want lists are still lengthy, which means that collectors (and investors) are maintaining their prominence in the marketplace. Without a doubt, every dealer we spoke with is excited about today's market. Of course, they are even more ecstatic over future prospects. The industry is rapidly gaining a stronger share of discretionary income from all over the world. Possibly, the most important aspect of today's coin market is the fact that prices are not leaping forward as they had done in the past, thus, running the risk of eventually causing the market to falter just as quickly when market support dwindles.

        Prices are rising steadily; granted, some areas, such as U.S. Gold, have moved back and forth with supply and demand, but this is an excellent example of how the overall coin market has improved as we head into the new millenium. Advanced marketing throughout our industry has created more widespread demand so that when one area is oversold, another series will now take up the slack. In previous markets, we would see nearly the entire marketplace move either up (the late 1970s, early 80s) or down (Lincoln, Nebraska Convention early 80s, the coin market's version of the Wall Street Crash of 1929). In previous coin market down cycles, the only buyers were dealers. We all know what happens when every dealer becomes a seller, there is only one direction for the market. Now, with many more collectors and buyers entering the coin market, we may have a true supply/demand oriented marketplace.

        In the past twenty years, the coin industry has acknowledged that most products move according to supply and demand. However, in previous coin cycles the dealers were usually the ones who moved the markets as they anticipated upward movements. When the market slowed and they could not maintain the advances, the reverse trend was usually more dramatic. That's when it would become difficult to sell coins unless there was an appearance of heavily discounted prices. Nowadays, there are buyers in nearly every area of numismatics; and the numbers are rising daily. If you have specific numismatic material you want to sell, if it is dead stock and you haven't been able to retail it, there is an expanded arena where you can move quantities of merchandise without taking a beating on prices. This was not the case in the past twenty years when stagnant inventory had to be offered at dramatic discounts and losses were taken. Now you can sell at any number of Internet auctions, or move entire lots to another dealer who continually runs Internet auctions. The coin industry has presented a more secure product over the last two years as the strength of the dealers and the market itself is readily apparent.

        We previously mentioned U.S. Gold and its place in today's market. This is an area that probably garners more dollar volume than any other series. Because of its high cost for just low grade coins compared to other series, movements into and out of this area are carefully monitored. This is one of the most attractive areas of numismatics to new collectors who have a sizable amount of spendable income. As they increase their Gold purchases, they usually begin to venture into a few issues which are just a little rarer. So begins the challenging quest into numismatics.

        While attending the Central States Show, I had the opportunity to meet several collectors who expressed their opinions of their experiences at the show. They were generally very satisfied with the coins purchased from dealers and the type of material that was being offered. One collector mentioned that he was glad he took the time off of work to come to the show on Friday realizing he would have missed some of the "good" deals by attending later in the show. Most of these collectors expressed the same sentiment; if they want to locate the special coins they need for their collections, they recognize the need to be at the show as early as possible. For the collectors who are just price shopping, they feel they are likely to get their best deals toward the end of the show.

        Arriving at a show early may just be what it takes for collectors, especially advanced collectors, to find desired coins, following the lead of the dealer community. Nearly every major dealer in the country will arrive at a show at least 1-2 days early so they can transact with the other dealers before the show. Everyone wants "first shot" at any new deals that come into the marketplace. Obviously, this makes for a very long show for many dealers and is the main reason why some leave prior to the posted closing. "First shot" for many dealers, means the difference in whether or not they have a successful show. The more astute collectors understand this same philosophy applies to them.

        The Central States Auction was conducted by Heritage Numismatic Auctions, Inc. The two featured segments of this sale were the Waldo E. Bolen, Jr. and Ernest J. Palmerston collections. There were numerous highlights in this $3.3 million auction. Probably the most important coin of the sale was the 1873 CC No Arrows Dime. This coin was graded by PCGS as MS64; more importantly, it is unique and came from the Eliasberg Collection. Jay Parrino purchased this rarity for $632,500. Other important highlights follow:

Denomination	Grade	Price Realized
1831 Half Cent	NGC PR65BN	$11,212
1922 Str. Rev. Lincoln Cent	PCGS63RD	$22,425
1927 S Buffalo Nickel	NGC65	$11,500
1795 FL Hair Half Dime	NGC66	$35,075
1807 Draped Bust Dime	PCGS64	$16,100
1804 Heraldic Quarter	NGC61	$28,750
1926 S S.L. Quarter	NGC65 FH	$14,375
1899 S Barber Half	PCGS68	$17,825
1919 D Walking Liberty Half	PCGS64	$12,650
1869 Seated Dollar	NGC PR67	$26,450
1878 8TF Morgan Dollar	PCGS67	$20,700
1887/6 O Morgan Dollar	PCGS64	$14,950
1895 O Morgan Dollar	PCGS62	$15,525
1924 S Peace Dollar	NGC66	$16,387
1903 LA Pur/Jeff Gold Commem	PCGS PR67	$26,450
1852 C $1 Gold	PCGS64	$18,400
1853 D $1 Gold	PCGS62	$22,425
1855 C $1 Gold	PCGS60	$16,675
1855 D $1 Gold	PCGS AU53	$18,975
1861 D $1 Gold	PCGS61	$31,050
1796 No Stars Quarter Eagle	NGC62	$138,000
1838 C $2 1/2 Gold	PCGS63	$40,250
1844 D $2 1/2 Gold	PCGS62	$17,250
1846 C $2 1/2 Gold	PCGS62	$32,200
1850 C $2 1/2 Gold	PCGS61	$31,050
1856 D $2 1/2 Gold	PCGS60	$44,850
1857 D $2 1/2 Gold	NGC62	$14,950
1854 D $3 Gold	PCGS AU58	$57,500
1838 C $5 Gold	PCGS61	$41,400
1838 D $5 Gold	PCGS62	$40,250
1842 C $5 Gold Sm. Date	PCGS AU58	$77,625
1842 D $5 Gold Sm. Date	PCGS62	$18,975
1844 C $5 Gold	NGC61	$16,675
1859 C $5 Gold	PCGS62	$28,750
1861 D $5 Gold	PCGS60	$39,100
1866 $10 Gold	NGC PR65 Cam	$71,875
1881 $10 Gold	NGC PR65 Cam	$52,900
1904 $10 Gold	NGC PR66	$55,200
1907 $10 Indian RE	PCGS66	$94,875
1911 D $10 Indian	NGC64	$55,200
1920 S $10 Indian	PCGS64	$55,200
1933 $10 Indian	NGC64	$112,125
1920 S $20 St. Gaudens	PCGS AU58	$21,850
1931 $20 St. Gaudens	PCGS64	$30,475
1931 $20 St. Gaudens	PCGS65	$41,630

        The next major coin show will be the Long Beach Expo, which runs June 3-6. Heritage will manage two auctions, a Signature Sale and a Bullet Sale. Just prior to the Long Beach Schedule of Events, Bowers and Merena will stage the S.S. Brother Jonathan Sale at the Airport Marriott in Los Angeles. Scheduled for May 29-30, this sale will feature over 1,000 coins from the ship that sunk off the California Coast in 1865. Chris Karstedt, Marketing and Advertising Director for Bowers and Merena, said, "This offering will bring to the market a selection of rare, high-grade double eagles, the likes of which have never been seen before. This will truly be a remarkable opportunity. Significantly, all of the high-grade coins are dated in the 1860s." This will be the beginning of another chapter in rare coin collecting that affords the advanced collector an opportunity to acquire coins rarely available, let alone in this quantity.