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NumisMedia Monthly
February 2011
Year of the Plus
Judging by the trades at this past FUN Show, the theme for this year looks to be rarity, eye appeal, CAC, and the + designation. Dealers and collectors are primarily looking for rare coins by mintage. Of course they want bargains, but this category of demand requires patience and the ability to negotiate. Most sellers of truly rare classics do not need to offer their coins at discounts, knowing that eventually these early rarities will sell at premiums when the timing is right. Recently, there have been many big-ticket coins resurfacing after many years off the market and many FMV prices have been updated this past month as a result. The following coins are extremely rare and have low populations for the grade. These all have new Fair Market Values this month, with a few slightly lower. Even though some issues have declined, competition is very brisk. In addition, for comparison, we have listed the FMV from January 2006 where available.
| Date/Denomination | Grade | Jan 2011 FMV | Jan 2011 FMV |
| 1793 Large Cent America | XF40 | $59,380 | $46,880 |
| 1856 Flying Eagle Cent | PR64 | $21,130 | $24,050 |
| 1872 Two Cent | MS65 Red | $21,450 | $11,050 |
| 1916 D Mercury Dime | MS66 FB | $63,050 | $58,500 |
| 1942/1 Mercury Dime | MS66 FB | $78,130 | $89,380 |
| 1796 Bust Quarter | MS65 | $292,500 | $201,500 |
| 1804 Bust Quarter | XF40 | $31,250 | $10,810 |
| 1804 Bust Quarter | MS65 | $431,250 | N/A |
| 1896 S Barber Quarter | MS66 | $90,350 | $74,750 |
| 1901 S Barber Quarter | MS67 | $182,000 | $162,500 |
| 1916 Standing Lib Quarter | MS64 FH | $25,630 | $26,250 |
| 1797 Bust Half 15 Stars | XF40 | $131,250 | $88,130 |
| 1904 S Barber Half | MS67 | $122,850 | $117,000 |
| 1799 Bust Dollar | MS66 | $331,250 | $300,000 |
| 1798 $2.5 Gold | MS62 | $95,550 | $87,750 |
| 1854 D $3 Gold | MS61 | $119,380 | $106,250 |
| 1809/8 $5 Gold | MS65 | $126,750 | N/A |
| 1823 $5 Gold | MS65 | $260,000 | N/A |
| 1911 D $5 Indian | MS65 | $270,000 | $187,500 |
| 1907 $10 Indian RE | PR67 | $2,210,000 | N/A |
| 1854 O $20 Gold | AU55 | $591,500 | $299,000 |
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All of these coins were available in the marketplace since the first of the year and are rare by mintage and population. Some qualify for the finest known, while others have not traded in a long time so previous prices were outdated. And you can bet that the majority of these coins had superior eye appeal for the grade.
This will surely be the year that dealers and collectors concentrate on CAC coins and the newly defined + designation. But how much of a premium will these high quality coins generate over regular FMV prices and will they bear additional profits down the road? We should be able to offer more insight to these questions as the year progresses.
As popular as early rarities have been of late, the opposite can be said for modern coins. Many of the highest graded modern coins have fallen from favor in the last year. This is especially so for the 'perfect' PR70 coins. The quality of the proof coins produced by the Mint is superior to those of yesteryear. As more coins are certified as PR70, rarity and value decline. However, those with low populations have maintained lofty values. The following chart shows a comparison of several Silver Eagles from the January 2006 FMV to the current FMV.
| Silver Eagles DC PR70 | Jan 2011 FMV | Jan 2006 FMV |
| 1986 S | $750 | $450 |
| 1987 S | $1,590 | $500 |
| 1988 S | $720 | $880 |
| 1989 S | $400 | $375 |
| 1990 S | $325 | $280 |
| 1991 S | $640 | $530 |
| 1992 S | $469 | $375 |
| 1993 P | $3,340 | $4,750 |
| 1994 P | $2,630 | $3,750 |
| 1995 P | $720 | $880 |
| 1996P | $463 | $810 |
| 1997 P | $488 | $880 |
| 1998 P | $250 | $406 |
| 1999 P | $400 | $490 |
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The earlier coins appear to provide more stability in their price structure. It is very apparent that each new year prices are high in the beginning because excited collectors want to obtain the latest perfect coin for their Registry Sets. However, as more coins are certified, the FMV tends to fall to a normal trading level which is based primarily on the higher populations as they rise. After a few years of grading (look at the FMV of the 1980's coins) there is some stability in the populations and normal supply and demand economics takes over.
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