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Gold Higher but Short Term Confidence is Low

September 15, 2014

     Gold may be higher this morning but it probably does not feel like it to those following this market. That’s because it has been mostly down since its high of $1,385 in March of this year. Last Friday it closed at $1,231.50; that is down $153.50 from that recent high. This morning it is up to $1,234.50, at least putting a temporary halt to last week’s downward trend. The recent losses have Gold analysts concerned about the short term direction, now questioning what it will take to turn it around. Most are still positive about the long term upward direction. Despite the recent negative market for Gold bullion, it is still $10 higher than its January low of $1,221.

     In this week’s LD Wholesale Market Dealer Price Guide there is a good mix of advances and declines. In most cases the higher prices represent demand for better date coins that are infrequently encountered in the market, typically coins that have extra eye appeal such as CAC coins or those with the + designation. Most of the decreases are for coins that are more readily available and discounts were needed to move them out of inventory. Nonetheless, most of the decreases are minimal.

     One area that appears to be on the rise is the Two-Cent series. From MS63 through MS65, several dates have recently advanced. The 1864 Large Motto in MS65 Red is up to $1,375 Market and the 1869 MS65 RB is up to $850. There are also several increases for Proof dates, including the 1865 PR64 RB now at $725 and the 1870 PR66 Red up to $5,575.

1870 Two Cent PR66 Red PCGS CAC

1870 Two Cent PR66 Red PCGS CAC sold for $9,987.50 in Heritage Auctions U.S. Coins Signature Auction in Long Beach, September 4-6, 2014

     Buffalo Nickels are attracting more buyers, especially for dates prior to 1930 for grades MS65 and higher. The 1917 S in MS66 is now at a higher $7,250. There are only 34 coins certified by PCGS and NGC in this grade with just one higher by NGC at MS67. Bear in mind that buyers for these coins are looking for solid strikes with no negative eye appeal.

     Another Buffalo Nickel date on the rise is the 1927 D in MS66. Its Market is now $18,500 with only 12 total coins certified; there are none higher in this very tough date. Other dates grabbing the attention of buyers are the 1919, 1920, 1925, 1928, and 1929 all in MS66; also the 1925 D in MS65 is higher at $3,975.

     The 1796 Draped Bust Quarter advanced this week with the recent Heritage Auctions Long Beach sale. The MS64 is now $155,000 Market, while the MS65 is $285,000, and the MS66 is now $450,000. There are just 13 coins certified in MS64, 6 in MS65, and 5 in MS66. PCGS has certified only one in a higher grade of MS67 and our Market price for that coin is $1,125,000, but could bring more in a sale today. In January 2006, the MS65 had a Market price of $155,000 compared to today’s $285,000; that is an increase of $130,000 in a little over eight years. Since the first of this year the MS65 is up by over 21% or $50,000.

1796 Draped Bust Quarter MS65 PCGS

1796 Draped Bust Quarter MS65 PCGS sold for $411,250 in Heritage Auctions U.S. Coins Signature Auction in Long Beach, September 4-6, 2014

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